Viral Earthquake Hoax: How Misinformation Rocked Japan's Tourism

A viral social media rumor predicting a devastating earthquake in Japan on July 5 significantly impacted its tourism industry, causing widespread travel cancellations and reduced flight bookings. Japanese government and scientific experts swiftly debunked the prophecy, emphasizing the lack of scientific basis for such predictions and highlighting the tangible economic consequences of digital misinformation. The incident underscores the critical need for media literacy and reliance on authoritative sources in the face of unverified claims.

The Viral Earthquake Prophecy

• The rumor originated from a 1999 manga, "The Future I Saw" by Ryo Tatsuki, which gained notoriety for a perceived prediction of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake.
• A 2021 reprint of the manga included a new warning for a major disaster in July 2025, later narrowed down to July 5.
• The prophecy gained significant traction across social media platforms like YouTube, X (formerly Twitter), and TikTok.

Impact on Japan's Tourism Sector

• The unfounded prophecy led to a surge in cancellations for trips to Japan, particularly from Hong Kong, with some tour operators reporting up to a 50% cut in Japan-related business.
• Airlines, including Hong Kong's Greater Bay Airlines, reportedly suspended or reduced flights to Japan due to decreased bookings.
• Arrivals from Hong Kong to Japan dropped by 11% year-on-year in May, illustrating the economic disruption caused by the rumor.

Official Debunking and Scientific Consensus

• The Japanese government, including Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) publicly dismissed the prophecy as a hoax.
• Scientific experts, such as Professor Robert Geller from the University of Tokyo, stated that current scientific methods cannot predict specific earthquake dates, locations, or magnitudes.
• The JMA emphasized that predicting earthquakes with the required three elements (time, location, and scale) is currently impossible, labeling such rumors as a "scam."

Misinformation in the Digital Age and Seismic Reality

• The rapid spread and impact of the prophecy highlight the pervasive influence of social media in disseminating information, both accurate and misleading, and the challenge of distinguishing credible scientific information.
• The incident serves as a stark reminder of the vulnerability of industries like tourism to viral misinformation and its psychological impact.
• While Japan is on the Pacific "Ring of Fire" and experiences frequent seismic activity (e.g., a 75-82% chance of a Nankai Trough megaquake in the next three decades), preparedness and reliance on verified information are stressed over unscientific predictions.